Young Voters in 2008
This document was compiled by Jane Fleming Kleeb with Young Voter PAC and Mike Connery with Future Majority. Updated information, analysis and graphs are housed at www.futuremajority.com and more to be published in the coming weeks.
The Numbers at a Glance:
52%, the turnout of young people under 30. In 2000, the figure was 40% and in 2004 it was 49% (respective numbers for older voters 65% in 2000, 68% in 2004).
60%, the percentage young people who made up of the entire increase of voters.
2-to-1, the margin young voters voted for Obama over McCain.
23 million, the number of young people who voted in 2008, 3.4 million more than in 2004.
66% Obama - 32% McCain, the highest partisan margin ever for young voters. Past margins were 48-46 for Al Gore in 2000 and 54-45 margin for John Kerry in 2004.
34% points, the margin between Obama and McCain which is the highest of any generation’s choice for President.
66%, the percentage of young people who voted for Obama, compared to 52% of all voters. In 2000, 48% of young voters choose Gore compared to 48.3% of older voters. In 2004, 54% young voters went for Kerry versus 48.1% of older voters.
18%, the share of the electorate young people comprised in 2008.
44 million, the number of young people that make up the Millennial generation, those born in the years 1978-1995.
22%, the percentage young people make up of the overall eligible electorate and by 2010 they will make up at least 30% of the electorate.
Repeat this:
Young voters diverged sharply from the population as a whole, preferring Obama/Biden over McCain/Palin by 66% to 32% (a 34% point Obama margin). Compared to older voters numbers which were 52% to 46% (a 6% point Obama margin). This is by far the highest share of the youth vote obtained by any candidate since exit polls began reporting results by age categories in 1976. In past elections from 1976 through 2004, young voters diverged by an average of only 1.8% points from the popular vote as a whole. 2004 had set the previous record for an age gap, with a 10% point preference for Kerry and in the 80s Regan won the youth vote with 59% choosing him.
The Best Pundit Talking Point Ever:
Exit polling indicates that Mr. Obama won two-thirds of those voting under 30 years old against 32 per cent for John McCain. Compare that with a 54-45 margin for John Kerry in 2004 and a 48-46 margin for Al Gore in 2000. Consider this: if young people had voted for Democrats at about the same proportion of the overall electorate (52-46) as they had voted as recently as 2000 for Mr. Gore and for many cycles prior, Mr. Obama would not have won North Carolina or Indiana. Young voters also provided the margin of victory in key battleground states such as Florida, Virginia and Ohio. The youth vote expanded the map for Mr. Obama; it put him over the top in states not won by Democrats in decades. –James Carville
Youth Turnout:
An estimated 23.9 million young Americans voted in Tuesday’s presidential election, an increase of at least 2.2 million compared with 2004, according to national exit polls, demographic data, and projections of total numbers of votes cast. CIRCLE projects the youth voter turnout is at least 52%, which is the second highest youth turnout since 1972 (55.4%).
Turnout in recent elections tells us yes. Youth turnout (18 - 29) jumped 9 percentage points in 2004. In 2006 young people once again voted in greater numbers, and in 2008, 6.5 million young people cast ballots in the primaries. Youth turnout in the primaries doubled nationally, and in some states, youth turnout tripled and quadrupled turnout from recent primary elections.
Voter Registration:
Across the country, millions of young voters were added to the voter rolls in 2008. In critical states like Virginia, Nevada and Ohio, young voters (ages 18 - 29) account for between 40 and 50% of all new voter registrations. The high registration rate is critical since in 2004, 81% of all registered young people voted.
The Generational TP:
The Millennials (born 1978-1995) are the most progressive and most diverse of any other generation. Despite governmental failures of leadership in historic moments like 9/11, Katrina, the Iraq War and the most recent economic meltdown, young people still see government as part of the driving force for solutions to problems and see government as a vehicle for social change. This is very different than Generation X which saw business as the main force for solving problems.
Young voters are informed on the issues. A Medill School of journalism poll in August 2008 found that almost 60% of young people surveyed say they follow news about the presidential campaign either fairly or very closely. Almost half say they go online at least once a week for news about the elections (49%), politics (44%) and political candidates (44%) – almost as often as for news about entertainment (50%), hobbies (47%), and their school (44%).
Outreach matters, and peer-to-peer is the gold standard. This is the first election in decades in which major party candidates spoke to the issues of young voters and dedicated real resources - in the form of peer-to-peer outreach aimed at America’s youth. That’s why we are seeing such high levels of engagement this cycle.
The Downside:
The downside with the record turnout is that it did not translate into as many down ticket wins as Democrats may have expected. This is for a few reasons. The Obama campaign, rightfully so, invested millions of dollars in targeting and turning out the youth vote for Obama—and it worked. But the big assumption was then young people would vote down ticket for all other Democrats. It looks at first glance that this did not happen. Young people are like all other voters and vote for the person with the highest name recognition or for a candidate who has specifically targeted and talked to them about issues they care about. The youth groups who are best equipped to turnout young people for Democrats in all races are groups like Young Democrats of America and the League of Young Voters—those groups didn’t get the large investments they needed to run field programs until late into the election. The Obama campaign made a very strategic decision to encourage major donors to give directly to their campaign rather than to youth groups, and it mattered. Young people turned out in large numbers for Obama, and not for the entire Democratic ticket. So the question is, do young people become an “Obama Nation” or a larger “Yes We Can Transformation” factor in politics? For future political gains, we hope it’s the latter.
What’s on the horizon for the youth vote is that the Democratic Party and donors must continue to invest resources into targeting the youth vote—not just in two years but once Obama takes office getting young people engaged in health care reform, new energy reform and other critical issues facing their generation. With the same vigor as the Obama campaign used traditional door to door and non-traditional methods of online activism, the Democratic Party must use those same tools in keeping young people engaged, voting and keeping elected officials accountable. Obama proved young people vote if you target and talk to them, now it’s up to candidates and the Democratic Party to continue to invest resources into the youth vote and for the youth groups to continue demanding more resources get invested into their program that work.
